A decade following the UK entered into a rushed public vote that polarised the country and caused chaos, a advisory comes from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and electorate drifted into Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is equipped.
That is the message from two leading commentators from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially tense and monumental referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can build support swiftly," the commentator stated. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Aims to Stir Debate
The pair have studied the governmental, financial and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a book, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the issue with a tour of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles all parties, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose consequences have remained undefined because then you end up with an extremely divided society where those defeated are resistant to defeat and the people who have won don't know precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say such a time is looming, and a group called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, resulting in ambiguity when or if there will be a national vote.
Lack of Serious Debate
Partisan language for and against unification has masked the lack of informed dialogue, said the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to achieve it has largely not occurred. Much has occurred in academia but scarcely any elected officials or advocates want to engage even with the fundamentals. For instance, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, neither author advocates unification or the current situation. They authors two pieces that strive for impartiality in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling financial and societal statistics, historical precedents and structural examples.
Arguments encompass flags and symbols, taxes, health services, pensions, public liabilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The objective is to enlighten and provoke dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," said the writer. "Debate suggests an acknowledgement of the concept that there could be good arguments on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they prefer unification but refuse paying higher taxes or adopting a different emblem to recognise unionists' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland must determine what the offer from pro-unification movements is beyond just declaring: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," said the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist believes a referendum in his generation is likely and that it might occur abruptly. "You could have just a reckless or a poor or a feckless secretary of state who says: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have plausible, valid arguments, he said. "One side will succeed on this issue and the other side will in the end not succeed but each side has got valuable insights to learn from the alternative positions."
Request for Wider Debate
Westminster needed to join the debate, said O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish issue."
